What can we expect from Pres. Obama?

What can we expect from Obama in his second term? FWIW, here are just a few predictions.


Give that Republicans maintained control of the House; we can expect a lot of executive orders to get around the House. Yes, the President may lawfully use executive orders and direct federal agencies, but only to execute laws and policies passed by Congress. Under the Constitution the President executes the laws passed by Congress. The President does not make the laws. It is sometimes a fine line, but it is clear that in domestic affairs executive orders and agencies may be directed only to execute laws and policies created by Congress. Orders and agencies may not be used by the President to make new policies, not approved by Congress. The process may not be used to bypass the legislative process. Obama got the Hispanic vote. Expect aggressive use of executive orders in the area of immigration. The President has a lot more leeway in military and foreign affairs, and we will continue to withdraw from Afghanistan. However, one gets the impression that the administration is looking for some pretext to get involved in Syria in some fashion. Stay tuned. In spite of Obama’s anti-Israel leanings, he still got the Jewish vote. Expect Obama to continue quiet support of the Palestinians and to lean even harder on the Israelis to make concessions. Much will depend on future Israeli elections. Perhaps this is the best approach to lasting peace in Israel and Palestine. Who knows? Stay tuned.

As always, the power to nominate people to fill Supreme Court vacancies will be crucial. Many key decisions are 5-4. Democrats retained control of the Senate. Hard-core liberals foam at the mouth when discussing Citizens United (First Amend rights for corporations) and the Second Amendment case D.C. v. Heller. Liberals have offered proposed constitutional amendments in Congress to overrule both decisions. Just as many hard-conservatives still foam at the mouth over Roe v. Wade, there is no reason to think the attacks will subside. Obama publicly criticized Citizens United and is not a fan of Heller. If Obama gets any appointees, he will be looking for Justices to limit or overrule those two cases (and expand federal constitutional powers). One of the cardinal rules of politics is to “reward your friends and punish your enemies.”   Obama urged his supporters to vote for him to get "revenge." Of course by punishing your enemies, you are also supporting your friends who also dislike your enemies. The NRA and corporations backed Romney. Catholic and other leaders criticized Obama for some of his health care policies. Expect Obama to go after them via the Supreme Court or legislation. We can also expect that candidates who are wimpy on First Amendment freedom of religion will be looked upon favorably. Unlike the situation when conservatives control the White House and Senate, we don’t need to worry about attacks on abortion and privacy rights. Every President does this. However, this practice threatens civil liberties and weakens the constitution, depending upon what is targeted. Is it too much to ask to request that Presidents stop playing ideological games with the Supreme Court? Don’t’ expect this practiced to end as long as victors reward their friends and punish their enemies. It certainly won’t end in this politically polarized atmosphere where many elections are decided by relatively slim margins.

Justices usually retire when there is someone in the White House with whom they are ideologically compatible. Don’t expect any of the conservatives to retire. However, death or disability can happen to anyone at anytime. Kennedy has been relatively healthy and probably enjoys his role as the most powerful person on the Court. The liberal most likely to retire is Ginsburg who is 79 and has had serious health problems. Look for the Court to remain ideologically split as it is now.

In the civil liberties area, as stated above don’t expect support for Second Amendment or freedom of religion. The administration has supported the indefinite military detention provision of the NDAA. Look for strong civil liberties support in the areas that liberals tend to favor: women’s’ rights, abortion rights, etc. Expect aggressive support for affirmative action that will test the limits of the equal protection clause. Most of this is good, but how about some principled, even-handed loyalty to the supreme law of the land.

The Obamacare decision seemed to support unlimited federal power under the taxing and spending and general welfare clauses. However, Republicans in the House will, at least temporarily, block use of these clauses for radical federal expansion of Democratic programs. However, the Obamacare precedent remains a potentially loaded gun to be used when the time is right.

Being a lame-duck, Obama may be even more aggressive in pushing his far-left agenda. Expect courting and efforts at vote buying of new and traditional democratic and liberal voters to continue. Left-wing political correctness will be pushed even harder.